Earlier this month, the daily Bangla language paper, Prothom Alo published the results of an opinion poll conducted by Org-quest Research Ltd during the month of September 2013.
The poll was important for a number of reasons (to see the methodology used, see the end of this post)
First, the election in Bangladesh is supposed to happen before 24 January 2014 so it provided an opportunity to see what the country was thinking on a number of key issues;
Second, it provided an opportunity to see whether its findings reflected the most recent poll conducted by AC Nielsen/Democracy International in July 2013.
Thirdly, the poll involved a large sample size of 5000 people - almost double that of the AC Nielsen/DI polls) with a margin of error of only +/-1.39%, so all being equal the results should be more accurate.
Fourthly, Prothom Alo has been undertaking an annual poll for the last five years, so the poll will show interesting trends over this period.
Prothom Alo has been kind enough to share the full report of the survey with Bangladesh Politico, and so below are some of the main points - with some relevant comparisons to the AC Nielsen/DI poll that had earlier been reported in New Age.
ELECTION ISSUES
Voting Intent
The Prothom Alo poll found that 50 percent of people would vote for the BNP compared to only 37 percent for the Awami League - with the Jatiya party on 7 percent and the Jamaat on 3 percent.
In July 2013, Nielsen/DI had found that BNP stood at 43 percent to 32 percent in BNP's favour – so the Prohthom Alo result shows much stronger support for the BNP (and indeed for the AL).
Indeed Nielsen/DI’s results – whose polls that I know of only started from June 2012 – have generally shown less strong support for the BNP than that of the AL: whilst Prothom Alo’s polls show the switch in popular support from AL to BNP taking place in 2011, this only happened in the Nielsen/DI polls in January 2013.
However, whilst the figures are somewhat different, they both tell basically the same story. There has been a big swing since the last election toward the BNP (with support somewhere between 43 and 50%) with the AL lagging behind (between 32 and 36%).
The Prothom Alo poll suggests that the undecideds/dont knows/wont say are at 14 percent - which could represent the percentage of the population not intending to vote at the election.
Election time government
In the Prothom Alo poll, 82% of those questioned supported holding the election under a neutral government – with only 18 percent supporting elections under a party government - down from 90% in a poll undertaken in April this year.
WIDER POLITICAL ISSUES
Direction of the country
In the Prothom Alo poll, 60% of people thought that the country was going in the wrong direction – a significant different from the 2009 results which showed that 70% of people thought the that country was going in the right direction.
This is similar to the results in the July 2013 Nielsen/DI polls which found that 58% of people thought that country was going in the wrong direction, with 37% saying it was going in the right direction.
Corruption
In the poll, the proportion of those who thought corruption has increased under this government went up from 49% in 2012 to 54%. At the end of the first year of AL’s rule this figure was only 34%.
Politicization of institutions
When asked whether ‘politicization’ in this regime has increased or decreased compared to that of BNP led government, 59% thought it had increased, whilst 25% thought it had decreased and 15% believed that it remained unchanged. (It remains unclear exactly what question was asked, and how people understood the meaning of ‘politicisation’).
When the poll was done in 2009, the numbers of people who thought politicization had increased was much the same as the number who though it had increased; but five years years later the poll found that more than twice the number of people believe that there hasdbeen increased politicization under the current government
War Crimes Trials
In September 2013, 80% of respondents agreed that those who had committed war crimes should be tried and punished with only 19% against it.
This was slightly down from the results in 2009 to a similar question, where 86% agreed and 80% did not.
However when the same people were asked about the ‘appropriateness’ of the process, only 40% agreed that the process was appropriate, with 59% thinking that it was not.
One problem with this particular results is that it is not clear from the survey results exactly what question was used to ask about the appropriateness of the trials
However, these results reflect those in the Nielsen/DI poll which found that 86 per cent of these voters who knew about the trials stating that they personally wanted the trials to proceed, with only 12 per cent against. However, when asked about the fairness of the process, 63 per cent (of those that knew about the trials) thought that the trials were unfair or very unfair
Banning of the Jamaat
When respondents were asked, if the political party, Jamaat-e-Islami should be banned, 70% responded negatively, with 29% in favor of such a ban.
These results were similar to those obtained in April 2013, where 65% were found to be against the ban and 25% in favour.
Government’s role in dealing with Yunus and Grameen Bank
In the September poll, 69% of respondents said that they did not support the role played by the government with Dr. Mohammad Yunus and Grameen Bank which whilst 27 % did agree. 4% said that they did not know
This is an increase in lack of support for the government from the 2012 poll results; this found that 60% did not support the government with 26% supporting and 14% not knowing.
It appears that the vast majority of those that did not know in 2012, had now decided that they were against the government in this policy area.
In 2012, when the question was previously asked, was an increased of 9 percentage points from 60% when a similar question was asked in 2000.
----------------
Methodology used
This is an excerpt from the survey document
The poll was important for a number of reasons (to see the methodology used, see the end of this post)
First, the election in Bangladesh is supposed to happen before 24 January 2014 so it provided an opportunity to see what the country was thinking on a number of key issues;
Second, it provided an opportunity to see whether its findings reflected the most recent poll conducted by AC Nielsen/Democracy International in July 2013.
Thirdly, the poll involved a large sample size of 5000 people - almost double that of the AC Nielsen/DI polls) with a margin of error of only +/-1.39%, so all being equal the results should be more accurate.
Fourthly, Prothom Alo has been undertaking an annual poll for the last five years, so the poll will show interesting trends over this period.
Prothom Alo has been kind enough to share the full report of the survey with Bangladesh Politico, and so below are some of the main points - with some relevant comparisons to the AC Nielsen/DI poll that had earlier been reported in New Age.
ELECTION ISSUES
Voting Intent
The Prothom Alo poll found that 50 percent of people would vote for the BNP compared to only 37 percent for the Awami League - with the Jatiya party on 7 percent and the Jamaat on 3 percent.
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
AL
|
56%
|
46%
|
38%
|
35%
|
37%
|
BNP
|
25%
|
38%
|
43%
|
44%
|
50%
|
Jatiya
|
3%
|
6%
|
8%
|
12%
|
7%
|
Jamaat
|
3%
|
3%
|
4%
|
3%
|
3%
|
Indeed Nielsen/DI’s results – whose polls that I know of only started from June 2012 – have generally shown less strong support for the BNP than that of the AL: whilst Prothom Alo’s polls show the switch in popular support from AL to BNP taking place in 2011, this only happened in the Nielsen/DI polls in January 2013.
However, whilst the figures are somewhat different, they both tell basically the same story. There has been a big swing since the last election toward the BNP (with support somewhere between 43 and 50%) with the AL lagging behind (between 32 and 36%).
The Prothom Alo poll suggests that the undecideds/dont knows/wont say are at 14 percent - which could represent the percentage of the population not intending to vote at the election.
Election time government
In the Prothom Alo poll, 82% of those questioned supported holding the election under a neutral government – with only 18 percent supporting elections under a party government - down from 90% in a poll undertaken in April this year.
2011
|
2012
|
Apr 2013
|
Sept 2013
|
|
Neutral Govt
|
73%
|
76%
|
90%
|
82%
|
Party Govt
|
25%
|
22%
|
8%
|
18%
|
The poll also
showed that amongst those who supported a neutral government were 53% of those
who supported the Awami League.
Whilst the
Nielsen/DI poll results also shows the unpopularity of the idea of a political
government holding elections, it showed that the support for a caretaker
government had declined considerably between April and July 2013
The
Election Commission
At the same
time as holding strong support for a caretaker government, the Prothom Alo poll
also showed that nearly half the country thought that the current election
commission has the ability to hold a fair election. 48% responded affirmatively
whilst 51% negatively.
In relation to
those who thought that the EC could hold a fair election - 84% of these were AL
and 24% were BNP.
This finding was not dissimilar to the Nielsen/DI July 2013 poll
which showed that 52
per cent had faith in the capacity of the Election Commission in ‘holding free
and fair elections under the current government.’ Only 32 per cent felt that
the Election Commission was ‘not capable,’
Lack of participation of the BNP in
the elections.
In the Prothom Alo poll, when people were asked if the election
would be acceptable without the participation of the BNP, 90% replied
negatively, Even amongst those who intended to vote for AL, 83% thought that
the election will not be acceptable if BNP does not participate
Direction of the country
In the Prothom Alo poll, 60% of people thought that the country was going in the wrong direction – a significant different from the 2009 results which showed that 70% of people thought the that country was going in the right direction.
This is similar to the results in the July 2013 Nielsen/DI polls which found that 58% of people thought that country was going in the wrong direction, with 37% saying it was going in the right direction.
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Country in right
direction
|
70%
|
61%
|
42%
|
40%
|
40%
|
Country in
wrong direction
|
29%
|
39%
|
57%
|
60%
|
60%
|
Running of the
country
In the Prothom Alo poll, 57% of people were not satisfied with the
running of the country. In 2009, this figure was only 29%.
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Satisfied with
running of the country
|
66%
|
58%
|
43%
|
46%
|
43%
|
Not satisfied
|
26%
|
34%
|
52%
|
49%
|
57%
|
In the poll, the proportion of those who thought corruption has increased under this government went up from 49% in 2012 to 54%. At the end of the first year of AL’s rule this figure was only 34%.
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Corruptoin
increased
|
34%
|
37%
|
46%
|
49%
|
54%
|
Corruptoin
decreased
|
42%
|
43%
|
40%
|
38%
|
34%
|
Unchanged
|
23%
|
20%
|
13%
|
12%
|
12%
|
When asked whether ‘politicization’ in this regime has increased or decreased compared to that of BNP led government, 59% thought it had increased, whilst 25% thought it had decreased and 15% believed that it remained unchanged. (It remains unclear exactly what question was asked, and how people understood the meaning of ‘politicisation’).
When the poll was done in 2009, the numbers of people who thought politicization had increased was much the same as the number who though it had increased; but five years years later the poll found that more than twice the number of people believe that there hasdbeen increased politicization under the current government
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Politicisation
increased
|
41%
|
47%
|
51%
|
51%
|
59%
|
Politicisation
decreased
|
36%
|
28%
|
27%
|
27%
|
25%
|
Politicisation
unchanged
|
21%
|
23%
|
17%
|
17%
|
15%
|
Government’s
dealing with the opposition:
In the Prothom Alo poll, 73% thought the government did not deal with the
opposition appropriately – a figure that was only 42% at the end of the first
year of the government On the other hand, number of persons who thought that it
dealt with the opposition appropriately went down from 57% to 26% in the same
period.
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Appropriate
|
57%
|
38%
|
33%
|
27%
|
26%
|
Inappropriate
|
42%
|
60%
|
62%
|
70%
|
73%
|
In September 2013, 80% of respondents agreed that those who had committed war crimes should be tried and punished with only 19% against it.
This was slightly down from the results in 2009 to a similar question, where 86% agreed and 80% did not.
However when the same people were asked about the ‘appropriateness’ of the process, only 40% agreed that the process was appropriate, with 59% thinking that it was not.
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Process is appropriate
|
52%
|
47%
|
44%
|
40%
|
Process is not appropriate
|
38%
|
47%
|
47%
|
59%
|
However, these results reflect those in the Nielsen/DI poll which found that 86 per cent of these voters who knew about the trials stating that they personally wanted the trials to proceed, with only 12 per cent against. However, when asked about the fairness of the process, 63 per cent (of those that knew about the trials) thought that the trials were unfair or very unfair
Banning of the Jamaat
When respondents were asked, if the political party, Jamaat-e-Islami should be banned, 70% responded negatively, with 29% in favor of such a ban.
These results were similar to those obtained in April 2013, where 65% were found to be against the ban and 25% in favour.
Government’s role in dealing with Yunus and Grameen Bank
In the September poll, 69% of respondents said that they did not support the role played by the government with Dr. Mohammad Yunus and Grameen Bank which whilst 27 % did agree. 4% said that they did not know
This is an increase in lack of support for the government from the 2012 poll results; this found that 60% did not support the government with 26% supporting and 14% not knowing.
It appears that the vast majority of those that did not know in 2012, had now decided that they were against the government in this policy area.
In 2012, when the question was previously asked, was an increased of 9 percentage points from 60% when a similar question was asked in 2000.
----------------
Methodology used
This is an excerpt from the survey document
1.1. Target Respondents: Adult males and females (18 years and above) who were enlisted as voters.
1.2. Geographical Coverage: The survey was nationally representative, covering 30 districts across all the 7 administrative divisions in both urban and rural areas.
1.3. Sample Size: n=5000, distributed amongst male & females in urban – rural areas proportionate to population as shown below.
1.4. Sampling Technique: The survey was conducted by adopting multi-stage stratified systematic random sampling technique to make the study as representative as possible. Estimated Margin of Error was: ± 1.39. The survey strictly adhered to the internationally accepted methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR). As a member of ESOMAR, Org-Quest Research Limited complies with the ICC/ ESOMAR International Marketing and Social Research Practices.
Systematic random sampling technique was followed to locate and interview target respondents. All seven divisions were considered. In each division 3 to 6 districts (primary sampling units - PSU), depending on the size, were selected keeping geographical dispersion in mind. Having selected PSUs, required number of secondary sampling units or SSU (municipal ward in urban area and village in rural area) and sampling/starting points (SP) were selected randomly based on electoral roll. Around each randomly selected starting point/cluster, a predetermined number of households were contacted and interviewed; leaving four intervening households in between (interviewed every fifth household).
The Right Hand Rule was used for selection of households other than the Starting Point (SP). This rule states that after reaching the SP, the investigator will have to go to the households falling on the right hand side from the starting point. Not more than 5 interviews were conducted in each starting point.
Within each selected household, names of all household members were listed down in descending order of their age. Serial numbers were provided to all members aged 18 years and above and enlisted as a voter in descending order of age i.e. starting with the oldest member of the family and going down to the youngest member who has completed 18 years. In case of more than one eligible member in a household, one of the adults was selected randomly by using KISH Table* for interview. Only one member in selected household was interviewed.
* Use of Kish Table (a randomized selection method) helps selecting the right respondents from the right household with multiple eligible respondents. The Kish Table was developed by a famous statistician named L. Kish.
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