3 youngsters accused of committing war crimes

Yesterday, Al Jazeera published my story on the recent arrest of a US citizen of Bangladeshi descent for allegedly committing international crimes including murder, rape and arson in the country's independence war even though he was 13 years of age in 1971 (he was born on January 3, 1958) when the offences were said to have been committed. 

You can read the article here

In the prosecutor's application for the arrest of Jubair (and 10 other people) it is stated that he was 62 years of age, suggesting that he would have been 14 - rather than 13 - in 1971. Whilst this was inaccurate - since all other documentation shows that he was born on January 13, 1958 - this may have just been a rounding-up error, since whilst he was 61 at the time of his arrest, he turned 62 two weeks late on January 3, 2019.

However, Jubair is not the only very young person whom the Tribunal allege to have committed offences - including, supposedly, the offence of rape!

In the same application seeking warrants of arrest, the prosecutors name two other men who would also have been (using the information given in the documentation) respectively, 12 and 13 years of age at the time the offences were committed.

The application says:

-  Siddique Rahman is aged 61 - which would have made him 13 in 1971

- Totun Master is aged 60 - which would have made him 12 in 1971

Rahman is now in jail, but Master was not arrested and is in hiding.

The fact that the ICT is now arresting people who were so young is in 1971 is all pretty extraordinary - and yet again raises questions about the integrity of the International Crimes Tribunal. 

Egregious rigging in Barisal uncovered

If any more proof were needed of the government's rigging of the election, you can find it if you dig down into the constituency results at a polling station level.

The Daily Star has done this in the district of Barisal - with the most egregious constituency being the constituency of Barisal-1 which had a total of 115 polling centres/stations.

The BNP candidate Jahiruddin Swapan received:

- 0 votes in 26 stations

- 1 vote in 9 station

- less than 10 votes in 40 stations.

The BNP candidate received a total of 1,305 votes

The AL candidate, Abul Hasnat Abdullah, received 211,507 votes. 

In seven polling stations the AL candidate received every single vote - not a single vote from any of the other candidates (there was a third party, the Islami Andolan Bangladesh)

The AL candidate, Hasnat, received 98.7% of the vote.

These two candidates have faced each other before, 17 years earlier.

In the 2001 polls, Swapan (BNP) beat Hasnat (AL) by around 14,000 votes. BNP got 81,791 votes while the AL obtained 67,760 votes.

This must constitute one of the biggest swings from one party to another in the history of 'democratic' elections.

In the 2008 elections, there was also a close contest between the AL and BNP - with different candidates. The AL candidate received 98,245 votes and the BNP secured 70,969 votes.

You will notice how carefully The Daily Star has written this article. 

For example, rather than having a headline which could reasonably read, "Polling station data suggest rigging in Barisal" it reads, "Voting Pattern in Barishal Dist: From well-contested to lopsided". 

This is what is known as media self-censorship

Government election narrative shredded by US, UK, EU

The UK, EU and USA have all now issued statements concerning the Bangladesh elections which will concern the government as they accept that vote rigging took place and cutt across the government narrative that these were free and fair elections. Each statement calls for the complaints to be examined. 

Opposition politicians and activists may have expected more - some even hoping (highly unrealistically) that the US or the EU would not recognise the new Bangladesh government - but arguably these comments are as critical as these countries could make in relation to a friendly ally, whose assistance they need in the fight against islamic militancy, and support for the Rohingyas. (It is important to appreciate that Governments tend to recognise states, not governments.)

The European Union stated:

The mobilisation of voters and the participation of the opposition in the elections for the first time in 10 years reflect the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh to democracy. However, violence has marred the election day, and significant obstacles to a level playing field remained in place throughout the process and have tainted the electoral campaign and the vote.
The relevant national authorities should now ensure a proper examination of allegations of irregularities and commit to full transparency in their resolution.
The European Union expects the country to move forward towards democracy, respect of human rights and fundamental freedoms. We will continue to support the work in this context, in the interest of the people of Bangladesh. (emphasis added)

The UK government stated:

While I welcome the participation of all opposition parties in these elections, I am aware of credible accounts of obstacles, including arrests, that constrained or prevented campaigning by opposition parties, and of irregularities in the conduct of elections on polling day that prevented some people from voting. I urge a full, credible and transparent resolution of all complaints related to the conduct of the elections.
I deplore the acts of intimidation and unlawful violence that have taken place during the campaign period, and am deeply concerned by the incidents that led to so many deaths on polling day. My thoughts are with the families and friends of those who have lost loved ones.
Free, fair, peaceful, and participatory elections are essential to any functioning democracy. It is vital for the government and all political parties to now work together to address differences and find a way forward in line with the interests of the people of Bangladesh.
We have a broad and important partnership with Bangladesh, and a significant Bangladeshi diaspora in the UK. We will continue to support the people of Bangladesh in their aspirations for a more stable, prosperous, and democratic future. (emphasis added)

The US government stated:

The United States commends the tens of millions of Bangladeshis who voted in Bangladesh’s 11th parliamentary election on December 30, 2018, as well as the decision of all major opposition political parties to participate, a positive development after the boycotted election of 2014.
The United States remains deeply invested in the future of Bangladesh and its democratic development. The United States is Bangladesh’s largest foreign investor, largest single-country market for Bangladeshi exports, and home to a large community of Americans of Bangladeshi origin.
In this light, we note with concern credible reports of harassment, intimidation, and violence in the pre-election period that made it difficult for many opposition candidates and their supporters to meet, hold rallies, and campaign freely. We are also concerned that election-day irregularities prevented some people from voting, which undermined faith in the electoral process.
We strongly encourage all parties to refrain from violence and request the Election Commission work constructively with all sides to address claims of irregularities. Bangladesh’s impressive record of economic development and respect for democracy and human rights are mutually reinforcing, and we look forward to continue working with the ruling government and opposition towards advancing these interrelated goals. (emphasis added)

The challenge for the opposition is now to systematically collect detailed evidence to prove that rigging took place on the scale that they allege - constituency by constituency, polling statement by polling station, polling agent by polling agent, at a level of detail and accuracy that will prove its case not only to the Election Commission and the country's judicial authorities (which will no doubt reject it) but more significantly to the international community. 

This is a major piece of work, requiring a lot of man power but something that should be done. The opposition must also ensure that they do not exaggerate their case, and ensure that their allegations are based on clear evidence.

When satire becomes reality in Bangladesh

There is now no satire in Bangladesh. Only reality. Or is that what we thought could only be satire is now reality.

Six months ago, Sheikh Hasina's son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, wrote a couple of outrageous fact-free articles arguing that the police had investigated every single allegation of an enforced disappearances in Bangladesh and found them all not to be genuine! In fact, he argued that all allegations of disappearances were "fictitious attempts by accused criminals to avoid prosecution and accountability." Yes, really. He said that!

The Economist and the "Exit Costs" of losing power

The Economist has an uncanny ability of distilling a country's complex politics into 500 words - and yesterday's article on the election is pretty sharp. It states:

"The Awami League, which has has been in power continuously for ten years, flagrantly wielded the full power of state institutions, from police to courts to the Election Commission, to promote its chances. Sheikh Hasina’s party also resorted to virtually every electoral trick in the bag." (For those who cannot access the website, the whole article is set out at the end of this post. )

Election rigging - the international community response?

So far political leaders from China, India and Bhutan have congratulated Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League government for "winning" the election - without any of them mentioning the widespread allegations of election rigging before and after the Sunday poll.

India is Awami League's closest ally, and so its unconditional support for the government after the election is far from suprising. China is not interested in the fairness or otherwise of elections. And Bhutan is too small to matter.

Western liberal democracies have not yet given their views on the Bangladesh election - and what they have to say, in particular the will both be both fascinating and significant. 

After the "election". What next?

Perhaps the biggest surprise of polling day was how much the Awami League government felt they had to rig the election on the day itself - since they had taken pretty extravagant steps to ensure victory before the vote itself. But clearly, the Awami League did not want to take anything for granted and used the police and their own activists to stop BNP supporters from voting, preventing opposition polling agents from entering polling centres, and stuffing ballots. 

There are enough eye-witnesses and reports to suggest that this was a widespread and systematic in most parts of the country. The plan set out in the documents leaked yesterday by BangladeshPolitico seemed to have been followed pretty assiduously.

The Bangladesh opposition should perhaps counts itself lucky that the Awami League government allowed it to win 7 seats!

Perhaps, the only institution whose credibility is more questionable than those involved in holding the elections is the small international observer mission which has played a home run for the government in bestowing legitimacy on the election. They clearly had no idea what was actually going on in the real world of Bangladesh's polling stations. (The EU, US government and Commonwealth did not send, or were not permitted to send, any observers) 

The Bangladesh government will now get its ducks in a row - and we will hear similar utterances about the credibility of the elections from the local partisan election observers (who were permitted to monitor the elections by the Election Commission), from the Indian government, and other political allies inside and outside the country.

The opposition has, understandably, rejected the election and has demanded a new one. It is, however, almost impossible to see how this could happen (at least in the short term) unless there was some kind of large-scale people's movement - which is itself highly improbable (opposition activists are now in hiding to escape arrest and are in no position to lead any street movement) and, were it to happen, would be ruthlessly repressed.

So where does that leave the government. There is no doubt the government will survive - as it does have a significant support base - but its widespread and systematic election/vote rigging has arguably created a far greater crisis of legitimacy than it faced even after the uncontested 2014 election. 

The reason why the last elections were uncontested was because the opposition parties did not trust the Awami League government, whilst it held the levers of power, to hold a free and fair election. The opposition demanded that the election be run under the control of a neutral care-taker election-time government under which all elections since 1996 had been held.

The AL government, however, argued that a special election time government was not necessary as it was quite capable of holding free and fair elections. The opposition refused to accept this and so boycotted the election. As a result over 150 parliamentary seats were uncontested, and the remaining ones were uncompetitive.

One of the reasons why the political opposition  did not take part in these 2014 elections was to avoid providing legitimacy to a rigged process which they would have lost - at the time the BNP was ahead in the opinion polls. The BNP thought that if it did not take part, it could more easily attack the government for being illegitimate. 

To some extent the opposition was right. For some time after the 'elections', the government did have a significant legitimacy problem - however as time went on, the Awami League government managed to win over the international community, and was successful at repressing the domestic opposition. In addition, the government put forward the cogent argument that it could not be described as 'illegitimate' when it was opposition which refused to take part in the elections.

This time round, the opposition agreed take part in the election, despite significant reservations. In effect, it agreed to test out the government's notion that it would hold free and fair elections even though it was in power. 

And the government flunked this test, resoundingly. 

The government cannot now criticise the opposition for not taking part - and instead can only argue that the elections were free and fair. There will be a battle between two narratives - and of course with the government in almost total control of the TV news media, and partial control of the print media - it will trumpet these arguments hard.

However, arguably, the government has gone too far in its rigging to make its arguments convincing. Apart from everything else, the very fact that the opposition won only seven seats will itself be seen as evidence of rigging.

The Awami League government has dug a huge hole for itself from which it will emerge only with difficultly. The drip drip arguments about the lack of legitimacy in Bangladesh will take its toll, and whilst, the future of the country is not easy to predict, it may well lead in due course to more concerted demands, particularly from young people, for new free and fair elections that will be hard for the government to deny.

Other "2018 Elections" articles

- Dec 31: Rigging the election: The polling agent debacle

- Dec 30: "Polling agents arrested" and "ballot boxes stuffed"

- Dec 29: Rigging the election before votes are cast

- Dec 29: Exclusive: Leaked documents suggest AL rigging

- Dec 27: Is it time to give the BNP opposition a chance?

- Dec 25: Awami League's new crisis of legitimacy

- Dec 23: A disgrace of a website

- Dec 22: Facebook exposes government's fake news

- Dec 22: Sajeeb Joy's poll half-truths

- Dec 21: Why the Government is fixing the election

- Dec 15: Full Pre-election polls for download

- Dec 13: Challenging the Orthodox View

- Dec 13: Fear and Awami League leaders

- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"

- Dec 9: Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed

- Dec 7: Disappearances before 2014 election






- Dec 7: Forced out, but service resumes

Election rigging - the polling agents debacle

On the eve of the election, this blog reported on the the arrest of seven polling agents from one constituency, raising the possibility that preventing polling agents from entering polling stations could become a more systematic strategy of the Awami League government on the subsequent day.

And this is exactly what has happened. The BNP claim that they had reports of polling agents being refused access in 221 constituencies.

Having polling agents within polling stations is crucial to prevent all kinds of shenanigans happen within the centres including stuffing of ballot boxes, and improper counting of votes - which is of course why the Awami League focused their efforts in stopping opposition polling agents from entering centres.

The Dhaka Tribune had a good story on this. It stated that:

The Dhaka Tribune independently observed nearly 200 polling centres across the capital on Sunday, and hardly found any polling agents of the BNP and Oikya Front.

The paper also reported on pro-Awami league people pretending to be opposition polling agents. The article is worth reading in full. 

The widely respected Zonayed Saki, chief coordinator of a small left wing party, the Ganosamhati Andolon, boycotted the elections in the three constituencies - one in Dhaka, Pabna and Chittagong - in which he and two other party candidates were contesting. According to him, their "poling agents were kicked out of polling stations and assaulted in almost every centre of Dhaka-12 constituency as well as in Chattogram and Pabna".

It appears that many formal complaints have been made about this to the Election Commission (which will no doubt ignore them). The lawyer, Assaduzzaman, who was standing in Jhenaidah sent this complaint which not only deals with the polling agent issue but other conscerns about stuffing of ballot boxes and voter intimidation.

Returning officer and Deputy Commissioner
Jhenaidah. 

Sub. Prayer for Cancellation of Election due to massive vote rigging in the Constituency No.81- Jhenaidah-1 (Shailkupa) 

Dear Sir,
With a heavy heart and deepest Concern, I would like to Lodge this Complain to you and pray for cancellation of the election due to massive vote rigging on 30, December, 2018 in the Constituency No.81- Jhenaidah-1 (Shailkupa) in which I happened to be a candidate having been nominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The basis of my complain and prayer are comprehensively stated in the following manner: 

1. On 30, December, 2018 all my Polling Agents in 117 polling centers appeared before the respective presiding officers to submit their identification card duly authorized and issued by me. In some of the centers, they could submit it but in many centers they could not submit it under duress by the cadres of the Bangladesh Awami league candidate and that too happened in presence of the presiding officers and members of the assigned law enforcement agencies. It is to be noted that in this election the Presiding officers and Polling officers are commonly known in the locality as the member of Awami league oriented families

2. By 11 am of 30 December 2018, all my Polling Agents have been forced to go outside the polling centers under duress by the Awami league candidate’s agents and their fellow cadres encircled in the respective polling centers. That too happened in presence of the presiding officers and the member of the law enforcement agencies assigned therein who were either kept silent or had abetted their activities. The Awami league candidate’s cadres had stamped on the ballot papers in the open day light after ousting our Agents which have been seen by many people. Even some persons who died before 30 December have been seen to have casted their votes . These were the scenario of all the polling stations. 

3. Immediately, I informed some of the incidents to the Assistant Returning Officer, Shailkupa over telephone but of no result. BNP supporters including my polling agents from all the centres had informed me over telephone that Awami League Candidate’s cadres had been resisting the voters on their way to polling centers, specially those who they believed to have BNP orientation. Motiur Rahman Bishwas of Baroipara has been caused leg broken injury and Md. Motiur Rahman Motin of Shailkupa Pourashova area has been caused grievous hurt with serious bleeding injuries while they were on their way back to Polling centres. 

4. If any effective and fair due diligence is done, you will be posted with the facts that from 2 pm onwards of 29 December 2018, the Awamileague Candidate’s cadres had threatened from door to door of BNP supporters with dire consequences asking them not to go to polling centres and they have caused serious panic in the vicinity all over the Constituency and it continued the whole night. They also used abusive languages upon the female members of some of the BNP leaders and supporters. This horrific situation can never be said to be an atmosphere for holdin a free and fair election. 

5. You may recall from your record that as many as 52 major incidents had been reported to you in writing over the last two weeks which were duly received by your office but no action had ever been taken in reference to those. Had there been any action taken against the perpetrators of those incidents, I strongly believe that the goons could have been controlled effectively and the election rigging could be prevented. Your failure to do the needful has not only given them a Frankenstein, but has also established your helplessness to conduct a free and fair election under a political government. 

6. Please be noted that in the given facts and circumstances, this complaint could not be lodged before the respective presiding officers due to our no confidence upon them as their purported and biased inactions have fuelled the vote rigging. In addition to that , our Agents are apprehending that their life will be endanger if they go to submit it to the Presiding officers. Hence, making complain to the returning officers lacks effective and efficacious remedy. 

7. In the circumstances, had there been a free and fair election, not only me but also the people of my Constituency strongly believe that I would be elected in a landslide victory. But the Awamileague Candidate has snatched my victory upon rigging the votes in the aforesaid manners. 

Wherefore, it is most humbly prayed that your honor would graciously be pleased to cancel the 11 Parliament Election purportedly held on 30 December 2018 so far it relates to Constituency No. 81-Jhenidah-1(Shailkupa) and take other appropriate legal actions against the perpetrators and I will be highly obliged for that 

Thanking you 

yours sincerely,

Md. Asaduzzaman
Candidate,Nominated by BNP
Constituency No.81-Jhenaidha-1 (Shailkupa)

"Polling agents arrested" and "ballots box stuffing"

The next roll of the rigging dice now seems to be the police arresting opposition polling agents and ballot box stuffing - though it remains unclear how extensive this is.

Polling agents should be able to play a crucial role in ensuring that some of the crasser attempts at vote rigging during the actual voting and the count do not take place. Removing opposition polling agents from the scene is a way to allow vote-stuffing and improper vote-counting - particularly when, as revealed by BangladeshPolitico, "Core AL Presiding Officers" have been allocated to certain polling stations.

Local BNP activists in the constituency of Thakurgoan-1, where the opposition leader Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is contesting, have told BangladeshPolitico that at least seven of its polling agents, each attached to a separate polling centre, were arrested by the police on Saturday. As of writing, three of them remain detained, and the whereabouts of the other four are uncertain.

Exclusive: Documents suggest AL rigging

BangladeshPolitico has been sent a copy of a power point presentation that provides new information on what appears to be one part of the government's proposed strategy of rigging the vote. Read here more generally about pre-vote rigging.

The presentation is titled: "How to win 11th Bangladesh General Election 2018: Strictly for Bangladesh Awami League." BangladeshPolitico obtained a copy of the document from a source in Police Headquarters.

The information is contained in the final two slides of the presentation given to the Awami League government, probably before the formation of the National Unity Front, as it only refers to the BNP, and assumes an untroubled relationship with the Jatiya Party.

Rigging the election before votes are cast

Awami League allowed to campaign without threats or fear

Autocratic governments rig elections before any votes are cast - by restricting opposition candidates from standing, stopping the opposition activists from campaigning, and preventing opposition supporters from voting. 

All these we have seen in recent months in Bangladesh - through the government's control of the courts, the police and the election commission. These three bodies are no longer independent entities in Bangladesh, and have largely become part of the Awami League machine. The government would like to avoid having to stuff ballot boxes on the day - which makes vote rigging very obvious - so they are doing everything to deter opposition supporters from coming out on election day to vote. 

Is it time to give the BNP another chance?

Awami League activists campaigning 

With my father-in-law, Dr Kamal Hossain deciding (surprisingly) a couple of months ago to lead the opposition alliance, I have kept away from writing professionally about this election and restricted my thoughts to this blog, focusing primarily on polls and the issue of the fairness of the election.

However, I thought I should write at least one article considering the merits of the two competing party blocs.

As I was writing this post, Anis Ahmed's op-ed for the New York Times,  Bangladesh’s Choice: Authoritarianism or Extremism popped into my in-tray, so I shall set out my thoughts on the two party blocs through reviewing his article.

Awami League's new crisis of legitimacy

"Election fraud"

In 2014, Bangladesh opposition parties boycotted the national election claiming that a vote taking place under the Awami League government - rather than a caretaker government* - would be rigged. 

The Awami League government at the time rejected that argument claiming that they could be trusted to hold a free and fair election. 

Without the participation of the opposition, the Awami League "won" the 2014 election.

However, without a contested election, the Awami League government, particularly in the first few years after 2014, faced a serious legitimacy problem, both at home and abroad. 

Here was a government, many argued, that was only in power, on the back of uncontested elections.

Election 2018: A disgrace of a website

On the very same day that Facebook exposed the Bangladesh government over fake news, another of its websites, Banglainsider has published a totally fictional and defamatory story about me. And yesterday the website published yet another one.

One can only wonder how desperate the Awami League government must be right now if it feels a need to get its hired hands to publish these kinds of stories which have no basis at all in fact.

Facebook exposes Bangladesh govt fake news

Bangladesh's Awami League government has been publishing fake news for years, but this week Facebook and Twitter exposed it for doing so.

On December 20, 2018, Facebook published a press release titled,  "Taking Down Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior in Bangladesh". It stated:

"Today we removed nine Facebook Pages and six Facebook accounts for engaging in coordinated inauthentic behavior on our platform in Bangladesh. Through our investigation, which began in part based on a tip from Graphika, a threat intelligence company that we work with, we discovered that these Pages were designed to look like independent news outlets and posted pro-government and anti-opposition content. Our investigation indicates that this activity is linked to individuals associated with the Bangladesh government."

Election 2018: Sajeeb Wazed Joy's poll half-truths

Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the son of the Bangladesh prime minister and one of her key advisors, has published the results of a poll that he commissioned in 51 constituencies, with 1000 people surveyed from each of these constituencies. He says that

"The 51 constituencies were selected from a mathematical analysis of all national election results from 1991 to 2008. These 51 were the ones that switched parties the most or had the narrowest margins of victory on average. These were the constituencies that our party was most concerned with."

He goes onto say that, "The average AL vote is 66% to BNP's 19.9%, with an average 8.6% undecided."

"On a party basis the Awami League leads in all 51, with the smallest lead 12.2% in Joypurhat-1 and the largest 75% in Barishal-4. The smallest undecided vote is 2.5% in Tangail-3 where the AL lead is 41.5% and the largest is 19.8% in Shatkhira-3 where the AL lead is 64.7%, far above the undecided vote.

This all seems very positive towards the Awami League. However, Joy is not telling the full story about these polls.

Election 2018: Why government is fixing the election

Police rush Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters at a protest
on February 9, 2018, Dhaka, Bangladesh

At first glance, this is probably the most mystifying question of the current election campaign in Bangladesh.

Whilst independent international opinion polls since May suggest that the Awami League is significantly more popular than the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Awami League government is acting as though the only way it can win the election is to repress the opposition and steal the election?

Full pre-election Bangladesh polls for download

This blog has written a number of different posts on two opinion polls, undertaken in May and September 2018 by international organisations.

- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"
- Dec 13: Fear and Awami League leaders
- Dec 13: Challenging the Orthodox view

However, you can read the whole of the unpublished opinion polls by downloading them here.

- International Republican Initiative (May, 2018) 

- Democracy International (Sept, 2018)

---------

Other 2018 Elections posts

- Dec 7:   Forced out, but service resumes
- Dec 7:   Disappearances before 2014 election
- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"

- Dec 13: Fear and Awami League leaders
- Dec 13: Challenging the Orthodox View
- Dec 15: Full Pre-election polls for download
- Dec 21: Why the Government is fixing the election
- Dec 22: Sajeeb Joy's poll half-truths
- Dec 22: Facebook exposes government's fake news
- Dec 23: A disgrace of a website
- Dec 25: Awami League's new crisis of legitimacy 

Elections 2018: Challenging the orthodox view

The orthodox view amongst most independent political commentators in Bangladesh is that if there was a free and fair election, Awami League would lose.

The commentators don't put this down to any great support for the opposition, but to a sense that there is a significant anti-incumbency factor, that people are fed up with the wide-spread corruption under the current government, the serious human rights violations including disappearances, extra judicial killings and arbitrary detention, the constant attacks on the opposition parties and the constriction on freedom of expression.

The same commentators also argue that the Awami League will never allow this to happen - that the government will use its control of the political administration, the police and the election commission to ensure that they "win" the final results, manipulating the vote so that the opposition parties win a certain number of seats, but no more.

Recent international standard polls, however, do not support the first part of this equation. Commentators may well be right in their criticisms of the Awami League government (as set out above), but these appear not to determine people's overall judgement of the government, and which party they will support in any election.

The same commentators who think that AL is more unpopular in the country than the BNP are often the same people unwilling to believe in the credibility of opinion polls, however independent or competently undertaken they might be. An argument, these commentators often given is that Bangladeshis will not tell people how they are truly thinking, particularly when there is a repressive political environment where someone's support for the opposition can have serious negative repercussions, including arrest. 

They also argue that the Awami League's repressive activities against independent journalism and the political opposition is highly suggestive of a government fearful of losing the election.

These commentators are of course right that there are real concerns about constrictions of freedom of speech and that many people will be scared to speak openly about their support for opposition parties - something identified by these very same polls and focus groups.

However, at the same time, it is not clear that this reality would prevent the vast majority of people from speaking honestly in providing anonymous responses to a poll. It is notable that before the 2014 election, these same polling organisations found that the BNP was more popular than the AL.

As to why the government is so repressive in a situation where a free and fair election would likely provide them a victory - that is a more difficult question to answer, and I will come back to in a separate post.

Below are some of the key findings from the September 2018 poll undertaken by Democracy International (based around a nationwide face to face survey of 2200 Bangladeshis in the first two weeks of September involving a sample "drawn using random selection techniques; it includes all seven divisions, 39 districts and is nationally representative.") Some details of the May 2018 poll undertaken by International Republican Institute are also referred to.) 
Support for the Awami League
I have already written about what the IRI poll undertaken in May had to say about declining support for both the Awami League and the BNP, with the Awami League having 25% support compared to the BNP's 10% with 62% of people being undecided/refusing to provide a view.

Democracy International: Support for the political parties

The more recent Democracy International poll however gives the Awami League a higher degree of support: 53% compared to the BNP's 15% - a 38% difference - with a much smaller number of undecideds.

Even if, for arguments sake, one were to add the 18% who refused to say and the 15% who were undecided to the BNP's column this would only increase its total to 48%.

Democracy International: Support for the parties since 2012.

The Democracy International poll also shows that AL's support increased by 13% from the 40% who had supported the party in the May 2015 poll. In the same three year period the poll found that BNP's support had decreased from 30% to 15% 

In what direction is the country headed?

Democracy International: Is the country heading in the
right or wrong direction

IRI May 2018 poll: Right or Wrong direction?

This support for the AL is also reflected in responses to the question in the about whether the country is going in the right/ wrong direction - 70% (in the right direction) to 17% (in the wrong direction).

The May 2018 poll carried out by IRI also found a significant majority of people considering that the country is headed in the right rather than the wrong direction - 62% to 22%

Democracy International, Sept 2018: An improved economy

Democracy International, Sept 2018: People who report being better off?

The main reason given in both polls why people believe the country is heading in the right direction is their view that the economy is improving, which is also reflected in that most people state that they are better off economically now than they were five years ago. When asked, "Are you (personally) better off than you were five years ago, are you not better off or about the same?", 69% said that they felt better-off and 13% said that they were worse-off.

More Confidence in AL than BNP

The Democracy International poll also shows that people have much more confidence in the Awami League's ability to deal with the issues important to people. For example, 72% of people think that the AL is better able to address improvements than infrastructure whilst only 12% thought that the BNP were better suited.

AL Leaders more popular than BNP leaders

The Democracy International poll also found that AL leaders, in particular Sheikh Hasina are well liked people, and more liked than BNP leaders. However, BNP leaders are also quite popular.


85% of people have confidence in Sheikh Hasina, the AL leader, and 86% say that they like her








61% of people say that they like Khaleda Zia

63% of people like Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the son of Sheikh Hasina

55% like Obaidul Quader, the AL General Secretary


45% like Tareq Rahman, the son of the opposition leader, Khaleda Zia

40% like Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP General Secretary

Views on Khaleda Zia jailing
The Democracy International May 2018 poll asked questions about the Khaleda Zia conviction and here jailing

It found that equal numbers of people supported (24%) and opposed (23%) the conviction and jailing of Khaleda Zia with most people saying that they did not know or refused to answer (53%)


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Other 2018 Elections posts

- Dec 7:   Forced out, but service resumes
- Dec 7:   Disappearances before 2014 election
- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"

- Dec 13: Fear and Awami League leaders
- Dec 13: Challenging the Orthodox View
- Dec 15: Full Pre-election polls for download
- Dec 21: Why the Government is fixing the election
- Dec 22: Sajeeb Joy's poll half-truths
- Dec 22: Facebook exposes government's fake news
- Dec 23: A disgrace of a website
- Dec 25: Awami League's new crisis of legitimacy

Elections 2018: Fear and Awami League leaders

In the most recent post, this Blog started to write about the results of 14 focus groups undertaken by Democracy International which the organisation, along with its funders UKAid and USAID, have sought to keep confidential

One of the most fascinating questions asked in the focus groups, concerning freedom of speech, was the following:

 "If an AL leader was in the room with us right now, what would you say to him or her?

The report found that:

 "Participants in all divisions said they would be unlikely to say anything to an AL leader, given the opportunity." 

It stated:

"In one of the most riveting exercises of the groups, at the very end, the moderator asked participants what they would say to a leader of AL and a leader of BNP, if they were sitting in the room. Participants in all divisions, men and women, urban and rural (though more urban than rural) said they would not even consider doing so to a leader of the ruling party, out of fear of retribution. A few offered policy suggestions or mild criticism but most would not." 

The report provides the following quotes - which are quite extraordinary - shows the level of fear which is currently part of the country's political culture:

"If I said anything to an AL leader, I would lose my job the next day." (Sylhet semi-urban woman, over 35, more than 12th grade) 

"We are afraid to talk to them. So it’s better to not." (Rajshahi semi-urban woman, under 35, more than 12th grade) 

"Cases are filed against people who talk to them." (Rajshahi semi-urban woman, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will ask them to not beat me up." (Rajshahi urban man, over 35, 12th grade or less)

"I don't know what I'd say. I'd be scared. (Sylhet urban man, under 35, 12th grade or less) 

I will not talk out of fear of harassment." (Sylhet urban man, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I would not be able to say anything. I would be in trouble if I did as we don’t have freedom of speech." (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I would be in jail for seven years and would have to pay BDT 7000 in fines. Why would I tell them anything?" (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I would not trust them even if they assured me they wouldn’t do anything." (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will not talk as I am scared for my life. I have a baby and for security I will not say anything to him." (Chattogram urban man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will not talk out of fear." (Chattogram semi-urban woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I wouldn’t say anything and sit quietly." (Chattogram semi-urban woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"Everyone will be silent." (Dhaka woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I will talk if no league leader, police or student league member is there." (Chattogram urban man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"We would say nothing." (Rangpur rural man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I could not speak independently." (Rangpur rural man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I wouldn’t come." (Barishal semi-urban woman, over 35, less than 12th grade)

Previous posts in 2018 election series:

- Dec 7:   Disappearances before 2014 election
- Dec 7:   Forced out, but service resumes
- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"-