Elections 2018: Challenging the orthodox view

The orthodox view amongst most independent political commentators in Bangladesh is that if there was a free and fair election, Awami League would lose.

The commentators don't put this down to any great support for the opposition, but to a sense that there is a significant anti-incumbency factor, that people are fed up with the wide-spread corruption under the current government, the serious human rights violations including disappearances, extra judicial killings and arbitrary detention, the constant attacks on the opposition parties and the constriction on freedom of expression.

The same commentators also argue that the Awami League will never allow this to happen - that the government will use its control of the political administration, the police and the election commission to ensure that they "win" the final results, manipulating the vote so that the opposition parties win a certain number of seats, but no more.

Recent international standard polls, however, do not support the first part of this equation. Commentators may well be right in their criticisms of the Awami League government (as set out above), but these appear not to determine people's overall judgement of the government, and which party they will support in any election.

The same commentators who think that AL is more unpopular in the country than the BNP are often the same people unwilling to believe in the credibility of opinion polls, however independent or competently undertaken they might be. An argument, these commentators often given is that Bangladeshis will not tell people how they are truly thinking, particularly when there is a repressive political environment where someone's support for the opposition can have serious negative repercussions, including arrest. 

They also argue that the Awami League's repressive activities against independent journalism and the political opposition is highly suggestive of a government fearful of losing the election.

These commentators are of course right that there are real concerns about constrictions of freedom of speech and that many people will be scared to speak openly about their support for opposition parties - something identified by these very same polls and focus groups.

However, at the same time, it is not clear that this reality would prevent the vast majority of people from speaking honestly in providing anonymous responses to a poll. It is notable that before the 2014 election, these same polling organisations found that the BNP was more popular than the AL.

As to why the government is so repressive in a situation where a free and fair election would likely provide them a victory - that is a more difficult question to answer, and I will come back to in a separate post.

Below are some of the key findings from the September 2018 poll undertaken by Democracy International (based around a nationwide face to face survey of 2200 Bangladeshis in the first two weeks of September involving a sample "drawn using random selection techniques; it includes all seven divisions, 39 districts and is nationally representative.") Some details of the May 2018 poll undertaken by International Republican Institute are also referred to.) 
Support for the Awami League
I have already written about what the IRI poll undertaken in May had to say about declining support for both the Awami League and the BNP, with the Awami League having 25% support compared to the BNP's 10% with 62% of people being undecided/refusing to provide a view.

Democracy International: Support for the political parties

The more recent Democracy International poll however gives the Awami League a higher degree of support: 53% compared to the BNP's 15% - a 38% difference - with a much smaller number of undecideds.

Even if, for arguments sake, one were to add the 18% who refused to say and the 15% who were undecided to the BNP's column this would only increase its total to 48%.

Democracy International: Support for the parties since 2012.

The Democracy International poll also shows that AL's support increased by 13% from the 40% who had supported the party in the May 2015 poll. In the same three year period the poll found that BNP's support had decreased from 30% to 15% 

In what direction is the country headed?

Democracy International: Is the country heading in the
right or wrong direction

IRI May 2018 poll: Right or Wrong direction?

This support for the AL is also reflected in responses to the question in the about whether the country is going in the right/ wrong direction - 70% (in the right direction) to 17% (in the wrong direction).

The May 2018 poll carried out by IRI also found a significant majority of people considering that the country is headed in the right rather than the wrong direction - 62% to 22%

Democracy International, Sept 2018: An improved economy

Democracy International, Sept 2018: People who report being better off?

The main reason given in both polls why people believe the country is heading in the right direction is their view that the economy is improving, which is also reflected in that most people state that they are better off economically now than they were five years ago. When asked, "Are you (personally) better off than you were five years ago, are you not better off or about the same?", 69% said that they felt better-off and 13% said that they were worse-off.

More Confidence in AL than BNP

The Democracy International poll also shows that people have much more confidence in the Awami League's ability to deal with the issues important to people. For example, 72% of people think that the AL is better able to address improvements than infrastructure whilst only 12% thought that the BNP were better suited.

AL Leaders more popular than BNP leaders

The Democracy International poll also found that AL leaders, in particular Sheikh Hasina are well liked people, and more liked than BNP leaders. However, BNP leaders are also quite popular.


85% of people have confidence in Sheikh Hasina, the AL leader, and 86% say that they like her








61% of people say that they like Khaleda Zia

63% of people like Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the son of Sheikh Hasina

55% like Obaidul Quader, the AL General Secretary


45% like Tareq Rahman, the son of the opposition leader, Khaleda Zia

40% like Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP General Secretary

Views on Khaleda Zia jailing
The Democracy International May 2018 poll asked questions about the Khaleda Zia conviction and here jailing

It found that equal numbers of people supported (24%) and opposed (23%) the conviction and jailing of Khaleda Zia with most people saying that they did not know or refused to answer (53%)


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Please email me here with any new information or comments.

Other 2018 Elections posts

- Dec 7:   Forced out, but service resumes
- Dec 7:   Disappearances before 2014 election
- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"

- Dec 13: Fear and Awami League leaders
- Dec 13: Challenging the Orthodox View
- Dec 15: Full Pre-election polls for download
- Dec 21: Why the Government is fixing the election
- Dec 22: Sajeeb Joy's poll half-truths
- Dec 22: Facebook exposes government's fake news
- Dec 23: A disgrace of a website
- Dec 25: Awami League's new crisis of legitimacy

Elections 2018: Fear and Awami League leaders

In the most recent post, this Blog started to write about the results of 14 focus groups undertaken by Democracy International which the organisation, along with its funders UKAid and USAID, have sought to keep confidential

One of the most fascinating questions asked in the focus groups, concerning freedom of speech, was the following:

 "If an AL leader was in the room with us right now, what would you say to him or her?

The report found that:

 "Participants in all divisions said they would be unlikely to say anything to an AL leader, given the opportunity." 

It stated:

"In one of the most riveting exercises of the groups, at the very end, the moderator asked participants what they would say to a leader of AL and a leader of BNP, if they were sitting in the room. Participants in all divisions, men and women, urban and rural (though more urban than rural) said they would not even consider doing so to a leader of the ruling party, out of fear of retribution. A few offered policy suggestions or mild criticism but most would not." 

The report provides the following quotes - which are quite extraordinary - shows the level of fear which is currently part of the country's political culture:

"If I said anything to an AL leader, I would lose my job the next day." (Sylhet semi-urban woman, over 35, more than 12th grade) 

"We are afraid to talk to them. So it’s better to not." (Rajshahi semi-urban woman, under 35, more than 12th grade) 

"Cases are filed against people who talk to them." (Rajshahi semi-urban woman, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will ask them to not beat me up." (Rajshahi urban man, over 35, 12th grade or less)

"I don't know what I'd say. I'd be scared. (Sylhet urban man, under 35, 12th grade or less) 

I will not talk out of fear of harassment." (Sylhet urban man, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I would not be able to say anything. I would be in trouble if I did as we don’t have freedom of speech." (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I would be in jail for seven years and would have to pay BDT 7000 in fines. Why would I tell them anything?" (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I would not trust them even if they assured me they wouldn’t do anything." (Barishal urban man, under 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will not talk as I am scared for my life. I have a baby and for security I will not say anything to him." (Chattogram urban man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I will not talk out of fear." (Chattogram semi-urban woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I wouldn’t say anything and sit quietly." (Chattogram semi-urban woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"Everyone will be silent." (Dhaka woman, under 35, 12th grade or less)

"I will talk if no league leader, police or student league member is there." (Chattogram urban man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"We would say nothing." (Rangpur rural man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I could not speak independently." (Rangpur rural man, over 35, more than 12th grade)

"I wouldn’t come." (Barishal semi-urban woman, over 35, less than 12th grade)

Previous posts in 2018 election series:

- Dec 7:   Disappearances before 2014 election
- Dec 7:   Forced out, but service resumes
- Dec 9:   Exclusive: Results of Confidential Poll revealed
- Dec 11: Bangladesh's "Closing Democratic Space"- 

2018 election: "Bangladesh's closing democratic space"

You wait ages for a bus, and then they all come at once! 

I thought that the International Republican International (IRI) poll undertaken in May 2018 was the most recent international standard poll undertaken in Bangladesh, but I was wrong. Democracy International/Nielsen Bangladesh undertook a more recent poll in September 2018, along with focus groups a few weeks later in September/October - and a source has sent the results report to BangladeshPolitico.

Why Daily Star's opinion survey is a waste of time and money

The National Public Perception Study (also called 'Opinion Survey') undertaken jointly by the Daily Star and the Asia Foundation, and published today in the paper's 12 page tabloid spread - and also providing the paper with its front page lead article - is, simply put, a waste of time and money.

This may seem harsh, but the survey is a classic example of a pseudo poll, dressed up as a survey that is representative of the country, but in fact is not and as a result has very limited value.

The poll should not be given anywhere near the kind of attention that should be given to the recent polls undertaken by Nielsen/Democracy International and by Prothom Alo - if indeed it should be given any attention at all.

This is why.

In order for a survey to have any value, and for the Daily Star/Asia Foundation to be able to argue that the results are representative of the whole country, the poll has to be done in scientific way - and most importantly to use random sampling in order to identify the respondents.

This survey does not do this.

The purpose of an opinion poll is to ask questions of a small sample of a population of people who can represent the attitudes, opinions, or projected behavior of all of the people from which the sample is obtained. In effect, the fundamental goal of an opinion poll is to come up with the same results that would have been obtained had every member of a population been interviewed.

The key to reaching this objective is a fundamental principle called 'equal probability of selection', which states that 'if every member of a population has an equal probability of being selected in a sample, then that sample will be representative of the population.'

So for an opinion poll to be undertaken successfully in Bangladesh, every adult Bangladeshi must have an equal chance of falling into the sample. How this is done is the key to the success or failure of any such opinion poll.

Whilst the Nielsen/DI (published in the New Age) and the Prothom Alo polls used methods to randomise the selection of respondents - the Daily Star/Asia Foundation poll did not use this method at all.

As a result, there is little reason to imagine that the results of their survey are in any way representative of the whole country - which is what the Daily Star projects as being the case.

The methodology written in the newspaper puts much effort into explaining how weighting was done to make sure that the respondents were representative of the urban/rural divide for example - but this makes no difference if the original sample is not randomly selected.

And can one even explain the rationale for dividing the 100 selected respondents in each district into 'ordinary citizens' and 'non-political elites'? Is this how the country is divided?

In fact the Daily Star/Asia Foundation has done a great disservice to those organisations/newspapers undertaking proper opinion polls in undertaking this survey.

Bangladeshis are only just beginning to get used to the idea of opinion polls - and whilst most people may not understand the science/statitics behind it, many have started to appreciate that properly done opinion poll can produce legitimate results

For the Daily Star/Asia Foundation to undertake a survey with such little scientific value confuses all of this - and diminishes the work done by the scientifically organised polls.

It is particularly inappropriate for them to have undertaken this survey at such a politically sensitive moment in the country's politics. As the results are pretty meaningless.

The odd thing about all all this is that the Daily Star has in the past commissioned proper polling organisations to undertake scientifically rigorous opinion polls, so one would imagine that the paper's management are aware of the reason why one does an opinion poll rather than the kind of survey undertaken by them this time. But obviously not.

I can imagine that the Daily Star might respond to this criticism by arguing that it never actually said that the survey was representative of the national population - saying that it only 'gathered impressions' from a cross section of groups within Bangladesh. However, if you read the front page article, that is not the impression that is given. The impression given to the reader is that this survey is representative of the country.

There are three other oddities about this survey

1. Why did the Daily Star/Asia Foundation poll ask the question, 'Which party will win' rather than 'Which party will you vote for'. These are two very different questions, and will undoubtedly result in different results. 

That 55% of people think that that BNP will win the election, and only 28% think that the AL will win says nothing about the actual voting intention of particular people - and it is unclear why one would ask that question.

2. Why did the newspaper do this survey in September when its sister paper Prothom Alo had commissioned its own opinion poll in the very same period?

3. Why did the paper not at least commission  a professional surveying organisation to do the work?

Bangladesh Nationalist Party's strategic advantage at risk

David Bergman

It may seen ridiculous to suggest that either of Bangladesh’s main political parties could these days ever be seated on any moral high ground, but in relation to the argument concerning the election time government, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was on it, and now – arguably - isn’t.

The political situation in Bangladesh is fast changing and so months down the line, when everything comes out in the wash, the decision on Saturday by Khaleda Zia to reject the invitation by the prime-minister for dinner at her official residence, and to continue with the hartal, may of course not seem that relevant.

At the large rally on Friday, Khaleda Zia announced that there would be a three day hartal from Sunday onwards unless the prime-minister initiated dialogue to solve the political stalemate around the nature of the election time government.

This seemed a clever move - suggesting that the BNP wanted to find a solution through diplomacy. There was the stick of the hartal, for sure, but one which could easily be averted by a phone call from the Prime Minister.

BNP was on the moral high ground.

And so on Saturday, the prime-minister decided to do what apparently Zia had wanted her to do - phone her up and start the process of dialogue by inviting the opposition leader to a dinner at her official residence on Monday.

You might expect that the BNP would see this as a victory – their demand had forced the prime minister to make a phone call. This might not seem much, but this must be just about the first demand made by the BNP in the last five years which the government has actually accepted, and immediately at that.

However, Bangladesh politicians have reversed clausevitz’s famous aphorism; for them, or for many of them, politics in this country is the continuation of war by other means.

The BNP could not simply just accept the prime minister’s offer - they had to give her and the Awami League a bloody nose first.

For them, this ultimately was what the three day hartal was all about; trying to show the Awami League that the ruling party no longer had control of ‘the streets’ and could not necessarily depend on the law enforcement agencies.

Attacks on Awami Leaguers and their supporters are an intrinsic part of this hartal – to send a message to the ruling party that their time is up; that the opposition is organizationally strong, and can muster people to take on the government if the time was necessary.

And only when this message has been given, would the BNP then sit down for a dialogue – as only then, so their logic went, might the government actually take its demands seriously.

So when faced with the offer of dinner what did Zia do? She refused the dinner until the 60 hour hartal had finished.

Now, the country is back to square one - there has to be another phone call, another offer, and quite reasonably the Awami League prime minister may well question why she should go through another phone call when the opposition leader has failed to keep the terms of her previous public commitment.

Losing the moral high ground is one thing, but how will this affect the BNP’s strategic advantage

For that is what the BNP has at the moment.

The polls universally show that the BNP’s demand for a caretaker government is popular throughout the country even amongst AL supporters, and these same polls also show, with the BNP ten percentage points ahead of the AL, that the opposition party has the most to gain from free and fair elections and the ruling party most to lose.

In addition Western diplomats – as well as apparently those from China - stand much closer to the BNP’s position which is that there should be a neutral interim government, than the position of the AL which is that elections should take place under a party government.

These diplomats also accept that the BNP is right to question whether free and fair elections can take place without, at the very least Hasina standing down from the head of any election-time government – and so for them, it is Hasina who has to move towards the BNP position.

What this all means that is that - unless of course the Awami League comes out with a reasonable offer which the main opposition party rejects - these countries are highly unlikely to send election observers to any election in which the BNP does not participate, and will not recognize the result of any Awami League victory.

So, the BNP has the support of the majority of Bangladeshis as well as that of the international community in seeking concessions from the Awami League government. It is on the right side of this particular argument, and assuming that it is actually willing to negotiate with the ruling party, it will either win the concessions or, if it doesn’t, it will win the support of the international community if the AL tries to conduct the election alone.

This is a strong position to be in. Clearly there remain uncertainties - the role of India, for example, as a counter to the western countries. But nonetheless, the  BNP is well placed.

But this can so easily be lost.

Violence, strategically instigated by the opposition, will result in it losing support from the international community who will increasingly listen to the siren voices of the Awami League that are tirelessly telling diplomats that the BNP/Jamaat are a dangerous political alternative.

Whilst arguments about the nature of the next BNP government are of course separate from those about an election time government, they will inevitably impact upon how willing the diplomatic community would be in the future to question the legitimacy of elections under an Awami League government in which the BNP does not participate.

In addition, hartals and violence will not help the BNP sustain its popularity in the country.

Hartals are very unpopular; in a January 2013 Nielsen/Democracy International poll, over 90 percent of people viewed them as ‘bad.’ And violence perpetrated by the BNP/Jamaat will only tend to feed into the Awami League’s rhetoric of what people have to fear from the opposition winning the election.

Of course in the Bangladesh political activist’s mindset – where politics is just another form of war – there is a belief that people will only support the party if it is seen as a victor. They do not subscribe to the view that violence will necessary make them unpopular - giving the govt a bit a beating in their eyes only adds to their popularity.

If the BNP do allow themselves to be seduced by these arguments, they will however see their strategic advantage soon disappearing.

And that is not good for those who want to see a free and fair elections under some kind of government acceptable to both parties.

The BNP should put all their effort into dialogue and forcing, through legitimate political action, a change in the AL’s position on the election time government.

Hartals and political violence are a dead end – and only add to the risk of the possibility of the army stepping in.

And if that were to happen all bets are off as to which party will come out better the other end.

More Bangladesh polls results: religion, NGOs, hartals, corruption ...

Last week New Age newspapers published results of a series of opinion polls undertaken by AC Nielsen/Democracy International focusing on the level of political support held by the different political parties, and voters’ views on an election caretaker government, the war crimes trials and the Shahbagh movement. These can all be seen here

However, in the polls undertaken since June 2012 many other questions were asked of voters and below are findings which are likely to be of additional interest – though it should be remembered that that some answers were given over a year ago, and opinions may well have changed.

This is the first time these results - from polls in June 2012, Jan 2013, Mar 2013 and July 2013 - have been published.

All the polls involved face-to-face interviews with between 2,400 to 2,500 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh. Democracy International says that it is confident that ‘statistically, the views of those surveyed accurately represent the opinions of all Bangladeshi voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 per cent.’

Particularly interesting results:
- lack of confidence in NGOs;
- significance of religion;
- Awami League government does well in comparison with last Bangladesh Nationalist Party government in most policy areas;
- 'Corruption' is seen as biggest weakness of both main parties;
- 'history' of party, important to why people vote for AL;
- retirement of AL and BNP's 'founding families' from politics would weaken parties;
- 'hartals' very unpopular;
- control of prices seen as most important priority for new government;
- Overwhelming number of people want dialogue between main political parties.

June 2012 poll 

1. Confidence in institutions: When voters were asked to state whether they had confidence in different institutions, the three in which voters had the least confidence were the ‘police’ (50 percent had no confidence), the ‘political parties’ (43 percent) and NGOs (41 percent). The institution in which voters had the most confidence was ‘the military’ with only 5 percent saying that they had no confidence in it.

2. Religion: The response to two questions indicated the significance of religion in Bangladesh politics. A small majority of people (53 to 47 percent) either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the proposition that ‘religion and politics are two different things’ and 59 percent agreed/strongly agreed that it would be a good thing ‘if all political parties in Bangladesh is based on religion.’

3. BNP/AL policy comparison: Voters were asked to compare the current Awami league government with that of the 2001-6 Bangladesh Nationalist Party government in a number of areas. In ‘education and health care’, 82 percent thought that the current AL government was either successful or very successful, compared to 54 percent who thought the same of the previous BNP government; in ‘reducing poverty’, 36 percent thought the AL had been successful/very successful compared to 32 percent for the BNP period; and both parties get the same ratings, 40 percent, in relation to dealing with law and order. Only in relation to the price of goods does the BNP have a better rating than the AL (41 percent thinking that the BNP had been successful/very successful compared to 30 percent for the AL government). The caretaker government only rated well on the issue of law and order, where 71 percent thought it was successful.

4. Party shortcomings: When voters were asked what was the shortcomings/weakness of the AL and the BNP, the issue that was mentioned the most for both parties was ‘corruption’ - with the same percentage of voters, 35 percent mentioning it as a shortcoming for each party.

5. Why support parties: When asked what were the reasons ‘why some people like or support’ the Al, 46 percent of voters stated it was the party’s ‘leaders’ and 37 percent mentioned it was the party’s ‘history’ - higher levels than the percentage of voters who gave the same reasons about the BNP (31 percent and 15 percent, respectively.)

6. Party/candidate: Just over half of the voters questioned, 52 percent, said that when they vote, they decide solely on the basis of ‘the qualities of an individual candidate’. 18 percent said that they only considered the political party, and 26 percent stating that they consider ‘both’.

7. Founding families: The same percentage of voters, 55 percent and 6 percent respectively thought that both the BNP and AL would be ‘much weakened’ or would ‘disappear’ if ‘their founding families were to retire from politics. Many more people however thought that the Jatiya party would be affected if General Ershad and his family retired from politics with as many as 26 percent of voters thinking that the party would disappear ‘entirely’ (over and above the 52 percent who thought that the party would be weakened by their retirement).

January 2013 poll
8. Hartals: Voters were very hostile to both ‘hartals’ and ‘barricades’ organized by political parties – with over 90 percent viewing them as ‘bad.’ 65 percent even thought ‘criticising opponents in the media’ was ‘bad’. The kinds of political activities that were popular were rallies, public gatherings, TV debate and use of posters.

9. New election Priority: The issue that by far the most number of voters stated should be ‘given priority’ by the next elected government was ‘control of prices’ with 94 percent of voters thinking it a priority. In a question (where voters were allowed to provide more than one answer) 58 percent also thought that ‘improving law and order’, and 40 percent ‘dealing with corruption’ and ‘increasing jobs’, should be priorities.

March 2013
10. Media: Television is by far the most important medium through which people receive their news. When voters were asked ‘which medium do you receive the most reliable news’, 75 percent said ‘television’, with only 6 percent stating ‘newspapers’. 25 percent said ‘words of mouth’ with ero no-one stating the ‘internet’.

11. When asked which TV stations they watched, 37 percent said they watched BTV, 13 percent ATN Bangla, 11 percent Channel One, 7 percent Somoy TV and NTV, and 4 percent said ETV and ATN news.

12. In terms of those people who did read newspapers, 32 percent stated they read Prothom Ali, 27 percent Bangladesh Protidin, 15/16 percent said Amar Desh, Jugantor and Ittefaq, 8-10 percent Jonokhonto, Noyo Niganto, Kaler Khonto and Samakol.

July 2013
13. Dialogue: When voters were asked, ‘Do you believe that the government and opposition parties should get involved in a constructive dialogue soon,’ 93 percent agreed. And when additionally asked whether or not the ‘international community can facilitate dialogue’, 43 percent agreed and 33 percent disagreed.

(This work of DI is part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the American and British aid bodies, USAID and UKAID)

Nielsen/Democracy International Polls on Bangladesh

Last week on September 11 2013, New Age published five articles on a series of AC Nielsen/Democracy International opinion polls undertaken in Bangladesh in the past year. It was the first time that results of the polls had been published

For those interested in Bangladesh and wanting to get a better understanding of what people's view in the country actually are on a variety of different issues the polls are absolutely fascinating.

Below are the articles, with links to the original pieces in New Age

1. Significant swing towards BNP
AL hopes lie with ‘undecided voters’

A series of international standard opinion polls conducted over the past year show a significant swing of popular support towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, putting the current opposition party in a strong position to win the next national elections due to take place before 24 January 2014, New Age can reveal.
The most recent poll conducted in July 2013 put BNP’s support at 43 points, 11 percentage points ahead of the Awami League and more than double the results of a November 2012 survey which at that time found the BNP’s support to be at only 20 per cent.
Although the headline result of the July 2013 poll is good news for the BNP, the Awami League still has much to play for as the survey found that 19 per cent of all voters — one fifth of the total electorate — had still not made up their mind.
The July 2013 poll does not appear to be a freak result as two opinion polls carried out between the two polls found the opposition party gradually gaining ground over the Awami League.
A January 2013 poll showed the BNP had increased its support to 32 percent and a poll in April found that the percentage of people willing to vote for the BNP had increased to 38.
Support for the Awami League had in the same period flat-lined — remaining unchanged in the January and April 2013 polls, and only rising slightly to 32 per cent in the most recent poll in July.
The question asked of all respondents was: ‘If the election is held today, which party would you think you are likely to vote for?’
The polls — which were shared with New Age — were conducted by the pollster AC Nielsen as part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the American and British aid bodies, USAID and UKAID, and implemented by the international non-governmental organisation Democracy International.
Whilst this is the first time that the results of the polls have been made public, they were shared with the four main political parties after the completion of each survey.
The polls, which involved face-to-face interviews with between 2,400 to 2,500 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh, also asked their views on other issues of the day including the caretaker government, the war crimes trials and the Shahbagh protests (see adjoining articles).
Democracy International says that it uses the most modern statistical methods of polling employed elsewhere in the world and is confident that ‘statistically, the views of those surveyed accurately represent the opinions of all Bangladeshi voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 per cent.’
The poll results also show that whilst the BNP is currently more popular in all age categories, it has particular support amongst first-time voters, now aged 22 or under.
The preference of first-time voters is particularly significant as they are likely to account for about 15 per cent of the entire electorate at the next elections.
The July 2013 poll found that 46 per cent of the 18–22 age category supported the BNP whilst only 29 per cent supported the Awami League.
In 2006, at the time when the BNP was last in office, this cohort of voters was aged between 11 and 15 years, with little knowledge of the current opposition party’s period in office.
The BNP’s increased popular support is though not simply the result of its appeal to young voters; it is also due to former AL voters turning to the BNP.
All four polls between November 2012 and July 2013 show that almost a half of those who had voted for the Awami League in the 2008 election said that they would no longer vote for the party - with as many as 24 per cent of 2008 AL supporters stating in the July 2013 poll that they had changed their allegiance to the BNP.
In contrast, 90 per cent of those who voted for the BNP at the last election stated in July 2013 that they continued to support the party. In November 2012, this figure was only 70 per cent.
A particularly significant finding of the polls is how well the BNP is doing in those constituencies which historically, looking at the four elections results since 1991, the Awami League has won by healthy margins.
In the 41 constituencies which, on an average over the past four elections the Awami League candidate won by a margin of votes of between 7 and 14 percentage points (which Democracy International terms ‘AL-leaning’ seats) the July 2013 poll found that the BNP was, on an average, winning by a margin of 17 per cent (51 per cent the BNP to 34 per cent the Awami League).
And in the 72 constituencies which historically over the post-1991 elections, the AL candidate has won on an average by a margin of more than 14 percentage points — the ‘strong AL seats’ — the BNP, according to the July 2013 poll, was at level pegging with the Awami League (40 per cent the BNP to 38 per cent the Awami League).
The July 2013 poll also found that whilst the Awami League continues to have more support in rural (34 per cent) compared to urban areas (25 per cent), the BNP has greater support than the Awami League in both parts of the country, with support for the opposition party at 42 and 44 per cent in both rural and urban Bangladesh respectively.
The polls provide no clear reasons for the swing to the BNP between November 2012 and July 2013 although the nine months period included four war crimes trials convictions, the ensuring political violence, the Shahbagh protests, allegations against ‘bloggers,’ the two Hefazet rallies in Dhaka, and fuel price increases, some or all which may have been factors.
The last poll was undertaken after the four city corporation elections, held in June 2013.
Despite the swing to the BNP, a poll in January 2013, showed that the prime minister continues to have wide popular support — with 52 per cent of people saying that they ‘liked’ her. This was 2 percentage points less than the 54 per cent who ‘liked’ the opposition leader Khaleda Zia. The poll also found that 30 per cent of people did not like either leader.
Democracy International emphasised to New Age that the ‘views expressed in these surveys are those of the respondents who were selected using a statistical sampling method and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organisation or its donors, USAID/UKAID.’ 

2. Voter’s economic perception provides hope for AL

Although the July 2013 headline poll results point to a significant swing towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the electorate’s positive views of their own financial well-being provide the Awami League with reasons to hope that the popular mood in the country, particularly amongst the undecided voters, could turn back towards the party before elections.
When asked in July 2013, ‘Has the Bangladesh economy improved, worsened, or stayed the same under the current government?’ 46 per cent of the respondents were of the view that the economy had ‘improved’ and only 38 per cent stated that the ‘economy had ‘worsened.’ Sixteen per cent stated that they thought that the economy had stayed the same.
And when the voters were specifically asked whether they were better or worse off ‘than five years ago,’ the results were practically the same; 48 per cent said that they were ‘better off,’ 36 per cent said that they were ‘worse off’ with 16 percent stating that nothing had changed.

The results could be significant for the forthcoming elections as the perception of voters’ economic well-being before elections is in many countries considered a good indicator of whether they will vote for the incumbent party or for a change — with those who consider themselves to have economically improved more likely to vote for the incumbent party.
With much hanging on how the undecided voters (which the poll showed accounted for 19 per cent of the total electorate) finally decide for which party they will vote, it is notable that 40 per cent of the undecided voters stated that they were ‘better-off’ compared with only 32 per cent who stated that they were ‘worse-off.’
The results of one other question, which is also thought to be a good proxy for how people will vote in an election, provided mixed fortunes for the governing party.
In April 2013, when voters were asked the question, ‘Overall, do you think things in Bangladesh are headed in the right direction, or are they headed in the wrong direction?’ the results were bad news for the Awami League.
Eighty-four per cent stated that they were headed in the wrong direction with only 14 per cent stating otherwise.
However, when asked in July 2013 the same question, the figures had significantly changed.
The number of those who thought that the country was headed in the wrong direction had reduced to 58 per cent with the number of those feeling that the country was moving in the right direction rising to 37 per cent — a significant uptick for the Awami League. 

 

The policy area where the government is consistently considered by voters to have most succeeded is in the area of education.
When voters in July 2013 were asked what were the ‘three main achievements of the current government,’ more than a half of all the respondents (52 per cent) mentioned ‘improvements in the educational sector.’
The decision by the government to provide free textbooks to all primary and secondary school students, the nationalisation of more than 27,000 primary schools, and the appointment of tens of thousands of new teachers may well have been behind the positive views of voters.
In addition, a fifth of the voters (21 per cent) mentioned improvements in the buildings of communication infrastructure (roads, flyovers, etc) and 13 per cent mentioned agriculture as amongst the government’s achievements.
Other policy decisions considered positively were ‘women’s empowerment’, the ‘health sector’ and war crimes trials — each mentioned by 11 per cent of voters. ‘Increasing production of electricity’ and ‘digital Bangladesh’ was mentioned by 10 per cent of voters.
Nineteen per cent of those questioned, however, stated that the government ‘has had no success.’
The poll, involving face-to-face interviews with 2,500 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, was conducted by the pollster AC Nielsen as part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the American and British aid bodies, USAID and UKAID, and implemented by the international non-governmental organisation Democracy International.

3. Main party allies lose support  

The level of voter support for the principal allies of the both of Bangladesh’s main political parties has dropped by more than a half since the 2008 national elections, with Jamaat-e-Islami’s support as low as 1 per cent and the Jatiya Party 3 per cent, according to a national opinion poll conducted in July 2013.

In 2008, Jamaat, an ally of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, had received 4 per cent of the national vote, which at that time was the lowest level of support the party had received in the four elections since 1990, with the Jatiya Party, an ally of the Awami League, receiving about 8 per cent in the last elections.
As the levels of support for these two parties are in the low percentages, it is possible that the small decline in support found in these polls are within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points and may not be that meaningful.
The July 2013 poll found that Jamaat only retained the support of 57 per cent of voters who said that they had previously supported the party in 2008, with nearly a third of these 2008 Jamaat supporters (29 per cent) stating that they would now vote for the BNP.
In a poll nine months earlier in November 2012, the vast majority of 2008 Jamaat supporters, 89 per cent, had continued to support the party.
The new decline in Jamaat’s support appears to have particularly occurred in the last three months as polls in January and April 2013 showed that the party’s support was holding then at 3 per cent.
The July 2013 poll suggests that the decline in the Jatiya party’s support is due to its loss of support to both the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
Seven per cent of those who had voted for the Jatiya party in the 2008 elections said in July that they would vote for the Awami League and 10 per cent said that they would now support the BNP.
The polls, involving face-to-face interviews with between 2400 and 2,500 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh, was conducted by the pollster AC Nielson as part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the US and UK government aid bodies, USAID and UKAID, and implemented by the international non-governmental organisation Democracy International.

4. Popular support for caretaker govt
A majority of voters, including most Awami League supporters, are against the decision of the government to remove the caretaker government system, according to an international standard election poll that was undertaken in April 2013.
A subsequent poll taken three months later, however, showed a greater willingness on part of the electorate to accept elections under a political government although a clear majority still disapproved.
Constitutional provision for a three-month election-time caretaker government, first introduced in 1996, was removed by the present government in 2011.
Although the BNP has demanded its reintroduction for the forthcoming elections due to take place before 24 January 2014, the prime minister has rejected elections under any government other than the current one.
In the April 2013 poll, 81 per cent of voters, including 62 per cent of the Awami League supporters, said that they were ‘against’ the ‘removal of the caretaker government system,’ with only 15 per cent being in favour of the constitutional change.
When those voters who supported the caretaker system were asked ‘what are the positives of the caretaker government?’ 67 per cent stated that it would ensure ‘neutral and unbiased conduct of elections,’ 42 per cent said that it would lead to the ‘eradication of corruption,’ and 22 per cent that it would ‘care about everyone not just their party.’
When asked what were the negatives of ‘conducting elections under the current government?’ 49 per cent mentioned that it would result in a ‘biased election,’ 38 per cent that it would result in the ‘opposition not participating,’ and 30 per cent that the ‘vote wont be counted fairly.’
Respondents were allowed to provide multiple answers to these questions.
Hostility to the removal of the caretaker system, however, appeared less when voters in the same poll were asked a slightly different question: ‘Do you approve or disapprove of a national parliamentary election taking place under the current government?’ In answer to that question, only 68 per cent disapproved, and 32 per cent approved.
A poll conducted three months later in July 2013 showed that the level of support for political government-held elections had increased further to 41 per cent although a majority, 52 per cent, continued to disapprove.
The poll although continued to show that the strength of feeling against a political government held elections was much greater, with the percentage of those who ‘strongly disapproved’ holding elections under a political government over three times higher than those who ‘strongly approved’ (30 to 9 per cent).
It appears that one reason for the increased comfort with the idea of holding elections under a political government was the victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in the four city corporation elections held in June, one month before the poll was undertaken.
Seventy-seven per cent of those asked about whether these elections helped ‘increase voter’s confidence in elections under the current government?’ thought that they had.
The July 2013 poll also asked voters questions about how personally safe they ‘felt to vote’ under a political government (in comparison with elections under a caretaker government) and found that 53 per cent stated they would either feel ‘not safe’ or ‘less safe’ against a total of 47 per cent who said that they would feel either ‘safe’ or ‘safer’ to vote.
And whilst a majority of voters (51 per cent) felt that their vote would ‘not be stolen,’ 49 per cent felt that this would happen, with 17 per cent feeling ‘strongly’ that their vote would not count.
Despite the concerns held by a majority of people concerning the holding of elections under a political government, the July 2013 polls found that at the same time most people (52 per cent) had faith in the capacity of the Election Commission in ‘holding free and fair elections under the current government.’
Only 32 per cent felt that the Election Commission was ‘not capable,’ with 13 per cent stating that they did not know.
In the earlier April 2013 poll, however, the results suggested that the electorate had more confidence in the Election Commission if it was operating under a caretaker government.
In that poll only 28 per cent stated that ‘the Bangladesh Election Commission will do its job neutrally under the current government,’ with 64 per cent agreeing with the same proposition if it was operating under a ‘non-partisan government system.’
The polls which involved face-to-face interviews with between 2,400 to 2,500 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh, were amongst a series conducted since the beginning of 2012 by the pollster AC Nielsen as part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the American and British aid bodies, USAID and UKAID, and implemented by the international non-governmental organisation Democracy International.

5. Majority support war crimes trials but oppose Shahbagh protests
Most voters want the 1971 war crimes trials ‘to proceed’ even though a majority also consider the trials to be ‘unfair’ or ‘very unfair,’ according to an opinion poll conducted in April 2013.
The poll, which was amongst a series of surveys conducted by the pollster AC Nielson also found that nearly twice as many people were against, rather than in favour, of the Shahbagh movement.
When 2510 randomly selected people throughout Bangladesh were asked in April whether they knew about the war crimes trials, 92 percent said that they did with 86 per cent of these voters stating that they personally wanted the trials to proceed, with only 12 per cent against.*
However, when asked about the fairness of the process, 63 per cent (of those that knew about the trials) thought that the trials were unfair or very unfair (with 41 percent stating that they were unfair and 22 per cent stating that the trials were ‘very’ unfair) and only 31 per cent considered that the trials were fair or 'very' fair (with 22 percent stating that they were fair and 9 per cent thinking that they were ‘very’ fair).Those voters who thought that the trials were ‘unfair/very unfair’ included supporters of all the main parties: 84 per cent of the BNP and Jamaat supporters, 80 per cent of Jatiya party voters, and even 32 per cent of Awami Leaguers.
Voters were not asked about the reason for their views on the fairness of the tribunal but the process was subject in November and December 2012 to particular controversy with the publication of Skype conversations and e-mails involving the former chairman of one of the tribunals and allegations about the state abduction of a defence witness.
Voters were also asked about their view on the relationship between the BNP and the war crimes trials.
Fifty-four per cent agreed with the statement that the BNP ‘was not supporting war criminals, they are only demanding fair trials’ whilst 25 per cent agreed with the statement that the BNP ‘secretly support war criminals.’ Twenty-one per cent did not know which statement was correct.
This result would suggest that the attempt by Awami League politicians to taint the BNP through alleging its support for ‘war criminals’ has only been partially successful.
Questions were also asked about the Shahbagh protests which were triggered in February 2013 by the decision of the International Crimes Tribunal to sentence Abdul Quader Mollah, following his conviction for crimes against humanity during the 1971 independence war, to life imprisonment, rather than to a death sentence.
The poll found that 66 per cent of those questioned knew about the Shahbagh protests and out of this number, 69 per cent thought that the ‘reason’ why the protesters were at Shahbagh were to ‘demand justice/capital punishment,’ with only 19 per cent thinking that the object was ‘anti-Islamist.’
However, when those voters who knew about the protests were asked about the extent to which ‘most of your friends and family’ supported or were against the movement, the poll found that only 31 per cent supported/highly supported it (of which 13 per cent ‘highly’ supported it) and that 51 per cent thought that their friends and family were against/highly against it (21 per cent being ‘highly’ against).
The poll found that most Awami League supporters (60 per cent) supported the Shahbagh protests, with most BNP supporters (71 per cent) opposing them.
The poll also sought views on the nature of the protest. When asked, ‘Do you think the movement was a pure movement by the youth or is it a movement created by a certain party?’ the majority of voters, 51 per cent, stated that it was ‘orchestrated,’ with other 25 per cent believing it to be a ‘pure movement.’ Fifteen per cent of voters, however, thought that it started off as a pure movement and was ‘later supported by a political party.’
Most voters in the poll (61 per cent) did not think that the Shahbagh movement would have impact on the next general elections although 24 per cent considered that it would help the Awami League and 7 per cent that it would assist the BNP.
The April 2013 opinion poll is part of the Democratic Participation and Reform programme, which is funded by the US and UK government aid bodies, USAID and UKAID and implemented by the international non-governmental organisation Democracy International.

* Correction: This and the following paragraph have been amended to clarify that the questions about the level of support for proceedings and about the fairness of the trial process, were asked of those respondents who 'knew' about the war crimes trial, which was 92 percent of the total respondents.